Monsoon forecast 2024

Highlights of Updated Long Range Forecast Outlook for the 2024 Southwest Monsoon Season (June - September) Rainfall and Monthly Rainfall and Temperature for June 2024:

a) Quantitatively, the southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 106% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of ± 4%.

Thus Above Normal rainfall is most likely over the country as a whole during the monsoon season (June to September), 2024.

b) The southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September, 2024) rainfall is most likely to be above normal over Central India and South Peninsular India (>106% of LPA), normal over Northwest India (92-108% of LPA) and below normal over Northeast India (<94% of LPA).

c) The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ) consisting of most of the rainfed agriculture areas in the country is most likely to be Above Normal (>106% of LPA).

d) Above Normal rainfall is most likely over most parts of the country except many areas of northern part of Northwest India, Northeast India and eastern part of the Central India and adjoining areas of east India, where below normal to normal rainfall is most likely.

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