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Kerala. Weather update. Climate.

കേരളത്തിൽ ഇത്തവണ തുലാവര്ഷവും സാധാരണയിൽ കൂടുതൽ ആകാൻ സാധ്യതയെന്ന് കേന്ദ്ര കാലാവസ്ഥ മോഡൽ. 

 ഓഗസ്റ്റ് മാസത്തിലെ അന്തരീക്ഷ സ്ഥിതി പ്രകാരം കേന്ദ്ര കാലാവസ്ഥ വകുപ്പിന്റെ കാലാവസ്ഥ മോഡൽ കേരളത്തിൽ ഇത്തവണ തുലാവര്ഷം(ഒക്ടോബർ -ഡിസംബർ ) സാധാരണയിൽ കൂടാൻ സാധ്യതയെന്ന് പ്രവചിക്കുന്നു.

 വടക്കൻ കേരളത്തിൽ സാധാരണയെക്കാൾ കൂടുതൽ തുലാവര്ഷമഴ ലഭിക്കാൻ സാധ്യത കൂടുതൽ  

 ഒക്ടോബർ മാസത്തിൽ തിരുവനന്തപുരം ഉൾപ്പെടെയുള്ള തെക്കൻ ജില്ലകളിൽ സാധാരണയെക്കാൾ കുറവ് മഴ പ്രവചിക്കുമ്പോൾ മധ്യ വടക്കൻ കേരളത്തിൽ സാധാരണയെക്കാൾ കൂടുതൽ മഴ സാധ്യത. 

നവംബർ മാസത്തിൽ കേരള മൊത്തത്തിൽ സാധാരണയെക്കാൾ കൂടുതൽ മഴ സാധ്യത സൂചന നൽകുമ്പോൾ ഡിസംബർ മാസത്തിൽ തിരുവനന്തപുരം ഒഴികെയുള്ള ജില്ലകളിൽ കുറവ് മഴ പ്രവചിക്കുന്നു.

നേരത്തെ അമേരിക്കൻ കാലാവസ്ഥ ഏജൻസി( CPC ), കൊറിയർ കാലാവസ്ഥ ഏജൻസി (APCC) എന്നിവയുടെ പ്രവചന പ്രകാരം സാധാരണയോ അതിൽ കുറയാനോ സാധ്യത പ്രവചിക്കുമ്പോൾ. യൂറോപ്യൻ കാലാവസ്ഥ ഏജൻസി (ECMWF ), ബ്രിട്ടന്റെ കാലാവസ്ഥ ഏജൻസി ( UK Met Office ) എന്നിവ ഇത്തവണ കേരളത്തിൽ സാധാരണ യിൽ കൂടുതൽ കാലവര്ഷം പ്രവചിക്കുന്നു.

അതെ സമയം ഇത്തവണ കേരളത്തിൽ തുലാവര്ഷം സാധാരണയിൽ കുറയാൻ സാധ്യതയെന്ന് ജപ്പാൻ കാലാവസ്ഥ ഏജൻസിയായ JAMSTEC, സ്വകാര്യ അന്താരാഷ്ട്ര കാലാവസ്ഥ ഏജൻസി' അക്കു വെതർ ' ഉം പ്രവചിക്കുന്നു. 

NB : ദീർഘകാല മോഡൽ പ്രവചങ്ങൾക്കു കൃത്യത കുറവാണ്. ഇതൊരു സൂചന മാത്രമാണ്. 
എന്നാൽ സ്ഥിരം കേൾക്കുന്ന മറ്റേ 'സൂചന ' പറയുന്നത് പോലെയും അല്ല.
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Vineesh V
Assistant Professor of Geography,
Directorate of Education,
Government of Kerala.
https://www.facebook.com/Applied.Geography
http://geogisgeo.blogspot.com

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