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Monsoon forcast. Kerala 2021

2021 ൽ à´°ാà´œ്യത്à´¤് 'à´¸ാà´§ാà´°à´£' (Normal) മൺസൂൺ. à´•േരളത്à´¤ിൽ à´¸ാà´§ാരണയിൽ à´•ൂà´Ÿുതൽ മഴ (Above Normal) ലഭിà´•്à´•ാൻ à´¸ാà´§്യത*

*2021 à´¤െà´•്à´•് പടിà´ž്à´žാറൻ à´•ാലവർഷം (ഇടവപ്à´ªാà´¤ി) à´¸ാà´§ാà´°à´£ മഴ ആയിà´°ിà´•്à´•ും à´°ാà´œ്യത്à´¤് നൽകുà´• à´Žà´¨്à´¨് à´•േà´¨്à´¦്à´° à´•ാà´²ാവസ്à´¥ വകുà´ª്à´ª് à´…à´±ിà´¯ിà´š്à´šു. à´…à´¤േസമയം à´•േരളത്à´¤ിൽ ഇത്തവണ à´•ാലവർഷം à´¸ാà´§ാരണയിൽ à´•ൂà´Ÿുതലാà´µാൻ à´¸ാà´§്യതയുà´£്à´Ÿെà´¨്à´¨ാà´£് à´•േà´¨്à´¦്à´° à´•ാà´²ാവസ്à´¥ വകുà´ª്à´ªിൻറെ ആദ്à´¯ ഘട്à´Ÿ മൺസൂൺ à´ª്രവചനത്à´¤ിൽ (First Stage Long Range Forecast) à´µ്യക്തമാà´•്à´•ുà´¨്നത്.*

*à´•ാà´²ാവസ്à´¥ വകുà´ª്à´ªിൻറെ (IMD) à´µിà´µിà´§ à´•ാà´²ാവസ്à´¥ à´®ോà´¡à´²ുà´•à´³ുà´Ÿെ à´ª്രവചനങ്ങളുà´Ÿെ à´…à´Ÿിà´¸്à´¥ാനത്à´¤ിൽ തയ്à´¯ാà´±ാà´•്à´•ിà´¯ ആദ്യഘട്à´Ÿ à´¦ീർഘകാà´² à´ª്രവചനം (Long Range Forecast) à´¸ൂà´šിà´ª്à´ªിà´•്à´•ുà´¨്നത് ഇന്à´¤്യയിൽ à´œൂൺ à´®ുതൽ à´¸െà´ª്à´±്à´±ംബർ വരെà´¯ുà´³്à´³ ശരാശരി മഴ à´¦ീർഘകാà´² ശരാശരിà´¯ുà´Ÿെ 98 % ആയിà´°ിà´•്à´•ുà´®െà´¨്à´¨ാà´£്.(ഇന്à´¤്യയുà´Ÿെ à´¦ീർഘകാà´² ശരാശരി മൺസൂൺ മഴ 88 à´¸െ.à´®ീ ആണ്). ഇത്തവണ à´•ാലവർഷം à´¸ാà´§ാരണയിà´²ാà´•ാൻ 40% à´¸ാà´§്യതയും à´¸ാà´§ാരണയിൽ à´•ൂà´Ÿുതൽ മഴ ലഭിà´•്à´•ാà´¨ുà´³്à´³ à´¸ാà´§്യത 16 ശതമാനവും à´¸ാà´§ാരണയിൽ à´•ുറഞ്à´žുà´³്à´³ മഴ ലഭിà´•്à´•ാà´¨ുà´³്à´³ à´¸ാà´§്യത 25 ശതമാനവുà´®ാà´£െà´¨്à´¨ാà´£് à´ª്രവചനത്à´¤ിൽ à´¸ൂà´šിà´ª്à´ªിà´•്à´•ുà´¨്നത്.*

à´•േà´¨്à´¦്à´° à´•ാà´²ാവസ്à´¥ വകുà´ª്à´ª് à´¸്à´±ാà´±്à´±ിà´¸്à´±ിà´±്à´•്കൽ à´®ോഡൽ à´•ൂà´Ÿാà´¤െ à´¡ൈà´¨ാà´®ിà´•്കൽ à´®ോഡൽ à´•ൂà´Ÿി ഉപയോà´—ിà´š്à´šാà´£് ഇത്തവണ ആദ്à´¯ ഘട്à´Ÿ à´ª്രവചനം നടത്à´¤ിയത്. à´’à´ª്à´ªം à´¸ംà´¸്à´¥ാà´¨ à´…à´Ÿിà´¸്à´¥ാനത്à´¤ിà´²ുà´³്à´³ à´ª്രവചനവും നൽകി.

മൺസൂൺ à´®ാസങ്ങളിൽ à´•ാലവർഷത്à´¤െ à´¸്à´µാà´§ീà´¨ിà´•്à´•ുà´¨്à´¨ à´ª്à´°à´¤ിà´­ാസങ്ങളാà´¯ ENSO à´¨്à´¯ൂà´Ÿ്രൽ അവസ്ഥയിൽ à´¤ുà´Ÿà´°ാà´¨ും ഇന്à´¤്യൻ à´“à´·്യൻ à´¡ൈà´ªോൾ (IOD ) à´¨െà´—à´±്à´±ീà´µ് à´¸ാഹചര്യത്à´¤ിà´²േà´•്à´•് à´®ാà´±ാà´¨ും à´¸ാà´§്യതയുà´£്à´Ÿെà´¨്à´¨ാà´£് à´•ാà´²ാവസ്à´¥ വകുà´ª്à´ª് നൽകുà´¨്à´¨ à´¸ൂà´šà´¨. 

*Disclaimer : à´°ാà´œ്യത്à´¤ാà´•െ ലഭിà´•്à´•ുà´¨്à´¨ ശരാശരി മഴയെ à´¸ംബന്à´§ിà´š്à´šുà´³്à´³ à´ª്രവചനം à´®ാà´¤്à´°à´®ാà´£് ഇത്. അപകടങ്ങൾ à´¸ൃà´·്à´Ÿിà´•്à´•ുà´¨്à´¨ à´…à´¤ിà´¤ീà´µ്à´° മഴ à´¦ിനങ്ങൾ ഉണ്à´Ÿാà´•ുà´®ോ à´Žà´¨്à´¨ുà´³്à´³ à´•ാà´°്യങ്ങൾ à´ˆ à´ª്രവചനത്à´¤ിൽ à´¨ിà´¨്à´¨് മനസ്à´¸ിà´²ാà´•്à´•ാൻ à´¸ാà´§ിà´•്à´•ുà´•à´¯ിà´²്à´².*

*à´•േà´°à´³ à´¸ംà´¸്à´¥ാà´¨ à´¦ുà´°à´¨്à´¤ à´¨ിà´µാà´°à´£ à´…à´¤ോà´±ിà´±്à´±ി*

à´ªുറപ്à´ªെà´Ÿുà´µിà´š്à´š സമയം - 16/04/2021, 1 pm

Vineesh V
Assistant Professor of Geography,
Government College Chittur, Palakkad
Government of Kerala.

https://vineesh-geography.business.site

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